Downtrends feel like the worst possible time to be in the market, but for patient, long-horizon investors they are often the most important phase of the entire cycle: this is when risk is repriced, strong hands accumulate, and the foundations of the next upswing are quietly built.
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Bitcoin has slipped back toward the 90,000 USD region, yet one of the most important on-chain indicators – Exchange Inflow CDD on Binance – has dropped to its lowest level in seven years. Long-term holders are barely moving coins, even as short-term participants take losses. In this report, we unpack what ultra-low CDD means for supply dynamics, why the 84k–98k range matters, and how to frame the next big move without chasing headlines.
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Glassnode data shows that public companies, governments, US spot ETFs and exchanges now control almost 30% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. That concentration brings both structural support and new points of fragility for the market.
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Net taker volume for ETH on Binance has climbed from an extreme low of around –500M USD to roughly –138M USD. Selling pressure is still dominant, but aggressive buyers are quietly returning. This piece explains what taker flow actually measures, why the recent shift matters, and how investors can use it without over-interpreting a single on-chain signal.
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The 2024 run-up in Bitcoin looks increasingly like a recovery phase built on the first wave of ETF demand, rather than a full-blown supercycle. By contrast, the 2028–2029 window lines up with easier global monetary policy, structurally tighter Bitcoin supply, deeper institutional participation and broader real-world adoption. Together, these forces point to a longer and more durable cycle – if, and only if, macro and policy risks stay manageable.
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On-chain data shows stablecoin inflows to exchanges on Ethereum have fallen by roughly half since August, even as Bitcoin trades in a fragile range. We explore why this drop in fresh liquidity is one of the main obstacles to a sustainable recovery and how it reshapes the current phase of the cycle.
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Weekly volume on platforms like Polymarket has surged to the billions, while regulated venues such as Kalshi expand through partnerships with mainstream media. Forecast markets are evolving from a niche curiosity into an emerging asset class – but one that sits on a delicate line between financial innovation, behavioural risk and regulatory concern.
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On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin trading below the trader realized price bands, with selling pressure at unusually muted levels. We analyze why this positioning can support a relief rally toward 99k–112k USD, but also why the zone should be viewed as a test of conviction rather than a one-way ticket back to all-time highs.
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Bitcoin is stuck in a fragile price band as realized losses rise, long-term holders increase distribution and demand indicators stay muted. Spot ETFs are quiet, liquidity and futures activity have softened, while options markets are bracing for short-term turbulence around the FOMC meeting. This article unpacks what that combination really means beneath the headlines.
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Paradigm’s Matt Huang says crypto is entering its “Netscape or iPhone moment”: infrastructure is mature, products are easier to use, and regulated ETFs/ETPs are opening the door for mainstream capital. At the same time, a large share of onchain revenue – especially on Solana – still comes from highly speculative memecoin trading. This article explains why these two forces can coexist, where the dot-com bubble analogy is useful, and what needs to change for this new cycle to be more than a short-lived mania.
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The Hash Ribbons indicator has once again triggered its classic “buy” condition, signalling that a wave of weaker miners may have exited the network. Historically, these periods of miner capitulation have tended to cluster near major cycle lows—but the path forward is rarely a straight line.
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For more than a decade, investors have treated Bitcoin’s four-year halving rhythm as the market’s metronome. But after Bitcoin set a new all-time high before the 2024 halving, traded around 90,000 USD without a classic blow-off top, and became increasingly driven by institutional flows and macro conditions, a serious debate has emerged: is the four-year cycle broken, or has it simply matured?
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ETFs and public companies now hold a Bitcoin stack that rivals, and at times exceeds, the balances on centralized exchanges. Behind that chart is a bigger story: Bitcoin is evolving from a speculative asset into a serious piece of global collateral infrastructure.
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Since late November, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has flipped from red to green, suggesting that U.S.-based buyers are once again paying slightly above the global average for BTC. This article explains what that means, how to read it and where its limits are.
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Bitcoin's latest drawdown has pushed many 'digital asset treasury' stocks into a harsh reality check. Premiums to net asset value have vanished, leverage has flipped from tailwind to headwind, and companies that once looked like amplified Bitcoin exposure are suddenly trading below the value of the BTC they hold.
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After a sharp wave of liquidations, Bitcoin’s sentiment gauge briefly plunged to 10 out of 100, a level classified as extreme fear and the lowest reading of the current cycle. Although the index has since recovered toward the high 20s, crowd expectations have turned decisively bearish and online search interest has faded. This article explains what such readings really tell us, how they have behaved in previous cycles and how thoughtful investors can interpret them without falling into either panic or blind optimism.
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A sharp pullback in Bitcoin has chopped the combined market value of listed 'Bitcoin treasury' companies almost in half, down to roughly $73.5 billion. This drawdown highlights how corporate balance-sheet strategies magnify both the upside and downside of Bitcoin cycles, and raises important questions about funding, regulation and the long-term role of listed treasuries in the digital asset ecosystem.
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World Liberty Finance has just transferred 250 million WLFI (about $40 million) to a wallet attributed to Jump Trading, the largest single batch sent to that address so far. Earlier, the same wallet had already routed tens of millions of tokens through a Chainlink bridge and back to Jump-linked exchange accounts. This article unpacks what these flows could mean in terms of liquidity, treasury strategy and market structure, without assuming that any single transfer guarantees a specific price outcome.
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Glassnode’s latest Trend Accumulation Score heatmap shows something rare: from tiny wallets to mega-whales holding more than 10,000 BTC, virtually every cohort has shifted into net accumulation at the same time. This alignment does not guarantee an immediate trend reversal, but it does tell us that the aggressive selling of the last few months has given way to a more coordinated attempt to stabilise the market.
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After a sharp two-week drawdown, Bitcoin has found temporary support near the True Market Mean – the blended cost basis of actively traded coins. Yet spot price is still pinned between two key supply quantiles, with more than a quarter of circulating BTC now sitting at an unrealised loss. The current setup closely echoes Q1 2022, when failure to reclaim higher cost-basis bands preceded a deeper downtrend. This article explains what the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model is, why the 0.75 and 0.85 bands matter, and how upcoming macro decisions could decide whether this region becomes a launchpad or the start of a new leg lower.
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Aggregated altcoin trading volume on stablecoin pairs has once again dipped below its yearly average, a pattern that historically aligned with attractive entry zones for patient dollar-cost-averaging strategies rather than with the peak of euphoric rallies.
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In the last 90 days Bitcoin has settled roughly $6.9 trillion on-chain – on par with or above payment giants like Visa and Mastercard – even as a growing share of trading flow migrates into ETFs and broker channels. At the same time, market buy orders have pushed the buy/sell ratio to its highest level since 2023, and DEX perpetual volume has cleared $1 trillion for a second consecutive month. Together, these signals point to a market that is maturing, not fading, with Bitcoin and stablecoins quietly becoming core financial plumbing.
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A wallet that previously traded ASTER with a multi-million-dollar position and a controlled loss has returned, swapping roughly 3 million USDC into almost 3 million ASTER within 24 hours. This renewed accumulation is a strong signal of ongoing conviction, but it is not a shortcut for others to follow without their own research. Instead, the activity is a useful case study in risk management, campaign-style positioning and how to interpret whale flows in a brand-safe, educational way.
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Two whale wallets just transferred almost 25 million OP to Coinbase Prime, hours after the Optimism founder publicly acknowledged that the project had spread itself too thin and is now refocusing its strategy. The coins are being redistributed across many smaller addresses that have been quietly accumulating OP for months, raising a key question: is this capital preparing to exit, or simply reorganising for the next phase of the Layer-2 story?
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Fresh data from Hyperliquid and Binance shows a curious split in Bitcoin’s market structure: the largest perpetual futures cohorts have shifted toward a defensive, short-leaning stance just as Binance’s Bitcoin-to-stablecoin reserve ratio drops to its lowest level since 2018. That combination points to a market where leverage is cautious but potential buying power is quietly building on the sidelines.
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After weeks of discount, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has finally flipped back toward positive territory. That shift means US-based buyers are once again willing to pay slightly more for BTC than traders on offshore exchanges. In this deep dive, we unpack what the premium measures, why it matters and how to read this signal without overreacting.
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On-chain data shows a foundation-linked wallet quietly accumulating more than 355 million ENA in about three weeks, largely via withdrawals from a Bybit hot wallet. This sustained buyback activity is a powerful signal of confidence, but it also raises important questions about treasury strategy, token supply, and how holders should interpret large institutional flows.
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Fresh on-chain data shows that short-term Bitcoin holders have sharply reduced the amount of coins they send to exchanges at a loss, falling from around 67,000 BTC at the recent peak to roughly 11,600 BTC today. This quiet phase does not guarantee an immediate trend reversal, but it does suggest that one of the main sources of downside pressure is finally taking a step back.
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Recent USDT netflow data on decentralised exchanges shows that the heavy selling seen near Bitcoin’s prior highs has eased, with buy and sell volumes now oscillating in a much tighter band. That shift does not guarantee a new bull phase, but it does suggest that the market is moving from aggressive distribution toward a more balanced, potentially consolidating regime.
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Roughly 262,000 LINK, nearly 11,000 ETH and more than 117,000 AVAX were shifted into a fresh address just as markets focus on a potential Chainlink ETF. The move has raised plenty of questions, but on-chain data tells a more nuanced story than simple "bullish" or "bearish" labels.
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