USDT DEX Flows Hint at a Pause in Bitcoin Selling Pressure

The chart in focus plots three things on the same canvas: net USDT volume on decentralised exchanges (DEXs), Bitcoin’s price and, in the background, Ethereum’s price. At first glance it looks like a blur of teal and yellow lines, but with a bit of structure it tells a surprisingly coherent story about how traders have behaved through the latest cycle.

In earlier months of 2025, especially around Bitcoin’s climb into the high five-figure to low six-figure zone, USDT activity on DEXs was dominated by deep negative spikes. Those episodes reflect stretches in which more stablecoins were being used to exit crypto positions than to enter them. In other words, there was persistent selling pressure routed through on-chain venues. When those spikes appeared, extended drawdowns often followed.

Over the past one to two weeks, that pattern has shifted. Netflows are still volatile around zero—DEX markets are never quiet for long—but the extremes have moderated. The large negative waves that once reached hundreds of millions of dollars in a single window have given way to smaller oscillations. At the same time, Bitcoin has finally managed to stabilise and even stage a modest rebound from its recent lows.

That combination invites a natural question: is the worst of the on-chain selling behind us, and if so, what does that actually mean for the next phase of the cycle?

1. How to Read USDT Netflows on DEXs

Before jumping to conclusions, it is worth clarifying what the lines on the chart represent.

• Buy and sell volume show the total USDT traded on DEXs, split by whether traders are swapping into crypto assets or back into the stablecoin.
• Net volume (the teal line) is the difference between the two: roughly, inflows of fresh USDT being used to acquire crypto minus outflows of USDT being redeemed from positions.
• Bitcoin price (the yellow line) is plotted on a separate axis, giving a reference for how these flows line up with market moves.

When net volume is strongly positive, it suggests that participants are deploying stablecoins into digital assets on DEXs. When net volume is strongly negative, more USDT is exiting positions than entering them, which we can think of as a proxy for on-chain selling pressure. Importantly, this data captures only part of the crypto universe—DEXs and USDT—not all spot or derivatives venues. But because stablecoins are widely used as settlement currency, the signal is still meaningful.

In practice, analysts often care less about any single day’s reading and more about regimes: multi-week periods during which flows are consistently positive, consistently negative or oscillating in a narrow band. The chart shows all three states over the course of 2025.

2. A Look Back: Distribution at the Highs

To understand why the recent moderation matters, rewind to the earlier part of the year. As Bitcoin pushed into its prior peak zone near the 110,000–120,000 range, DEX USDT netflows tilted heavily negative. There were repeated stretches where the teal line dropped toward the lower edge of the chart, signalling that significant volumes of stablecoins were being withdrawn from risk positions on-chain.

Those episodes looked a lot like classic distribution phases. Long-term holders and early entrants were taking advantage of elevated prices and generous liquidity to scale out of positions. New buyers still existed—otherwise the price would not have reached those levels in the first place—but they were increasingly met with steady, patient selling. Eventually, the balance tipped. The market ran out of incremental demand at those valuations, and the weight of that distribution was followed by a sharp correction.

This is not a new pattern; it has appeared in various forms in previous cycles. What is different now is that we have better on-chain tools to visualise how and where it is happening, instead of relying solely on price charts.

3. The Present: Selling Pressure Eases, Volatility Narrows

Fast-forward to the last couple of weeks. Bitcoin has already completed a roughly 30–35% decline from its high, moving from the euphoric upper range back into a zone where many participants are far more cautious. One might expect on-chain selling to still be intense as late entrants exit and risk budgets are reset.

The USDT DEX netflow data suggests something subtler. Rather than showing another wave of heavy outflows, the teal line has settled into a tighter distribution around zero. There are still days when selling dominates and days when buying leads, but the difference between the two has shrunk significantly compared with the extremes seen at the peak.

In market-structure terms, this looks less like an active rush for the exits and more like a transition toward balance. A few important characteristics of such a phase:

• Reduced one-sided pressure. Both buyers and sellers are active, but neither group is overwhelming the other. Price swings can still be sharp, yet they are less likely to be driven by a single type of flow.
• Short-term volatility with an emerging floor. The lack of extreme net outflows makes it easier for the market to stabilise when demand appears, because there is less background selling to absorb.
• Divergence between sentiment and positioning. News flow may still feel negative—macro uncertainty, regulatory headlines, earnings surprises—but positioning has already adjusted. Many of the most motivated sellers have acted, while patient capital begins to test the waters.

That picture fits what we see in the price line: Bitcoin has finally pulled away from the lows and is attempting a short-term rebound. The key question is whether this is just a counter-trend move inside a broader downtrend or the early stages of a more durable base.

4. Consolidation 101: Why Netflows Shrink Before Trends Turn

On-chain data can sometimes feel abstract, but the mechanism behind shrinking netflows is intuitive. After an aggressive sell-off, a few things tend to happen simultaneously:

1. Exhaustion of weak supply. Traders who were highly sensitive to price declines have already exited. Their USDT has either moved back to centralised venues, into other assets or to the sidelines.
2. Entry of longer-horizon participants. As valuations fall, investors with a more patient approach begin to allocate selectively, often in smaller clips. Their activity is less dramatic but more persistent.
3. Lower leverage and reduced forced selling. While this chart focuses on DEX spot flows, it is still influenced by broader market conditions. As leverage contracts following a large move, the likelihood of cascade-style liquidations decreases, which tends to reduce extreme net outflows.

The combined effect is that the market moves from a regime of imbalance—where nearly everyone wants to sell or nearly everyone wants to buy—to a regime of negotiation, where buyers and sellers haggle over a fair price range. During that negotiation, netflows typically compress. They do not always flip positive right away; instead, they often oscillate around zero with lower amplitude until a new narrative or macro impulse tilts expectations again.

From a teaching standpoint, this is a useful reminder that many turning points are not marked by dramatic single-day signals. They are built gradually through weeks of quieter repositioning that shows up precisely in indicators like the one on this chart.

5. What Would a Healthier Uptrend Look Like?

If the recent moderation in netflows is step one, what might step two and three look like in data?

In prior cycles, more durable uptrends have tended to combine three features:

• Consistently positive, but not extreme, netflows. Instead of massive one-day surges, we see a gentle tilt toward inflows over a multi-week period. That pattern suggests that new demand is broad-based and organic rather than driven by a small number of highly active wallets.
• Constructive price behaviour. Bitcoin does not need to race to new highs immediately, but it does need to respect higher lows and reduce the frequency of sharp downside spikes. That kind of structure often emerges when markets are quietly absorbing supply at progressively higher levels.
• Diversification of activity across assets. While this chart focuses on BTC and ETH, sustainable advances usually coincide with increased participation across a range of networks and applications: stablecoin transfers for payments and payroll, layer-2 usage, on-chain governance activity and so on.

At the moment, we appear to be in an intermediate phase. The worst of the on-chain selling pressure has eased, as reflected by the shrinking netflow amplitude, and the price has responded with a modest rebound. But we have not yet seen an extended period of clearly positive netflows that would indicate broad re-risking.

That does not mean such a phase will or will not arrive; it simply means the data is still describing a market that is catching its breath rather than committing decisively to a new direction.

6. The Role of USDT: Liquidity Gauge, Not Crystal Ball

Why focus on USDT in particular? In much of the crypto ecosystem, this stablecoin acts as the primary unit of account and settlement. When traders want to add exposure, they often deploy USDT; when they want to reduce exposure, they move back into it. For that reason, tracking USDT on DEXs is a way to approximate how aggressively market participants are rotating between risk and stability on-chain.

However, it is important to emphasise the limits of this approach:

• Large parts of the market still trade on centralised platforms, where flows may look different.
• Stablecoins can move for reasons unrelated to trading, such as treasury operations, cross-chain transfers or settlements between institutions.
• Even when flows are clearly related to trading, they do not tell us anything about the specific strategies or time horizons of individual actors.

In other words, USDT DEX netflows are a useful contextual tool, not a stand-alone forecasting engine. They help answer questions like “Is the market still dominated by one-sided selling?” far more reliably than questions like “Will Bitcoin be higher or lower next month?”

7. Practical, Brand-Safe Takeaways

From an educational perspective, the current data offers several constructive lessons for readers who follow on-chain metrics—regardless of whether they are active traders, long-term investors or simply curious observers.

1. Look for regime changes, not single prints. The shift from extreme negative netflows at the highs to a tighter band around zero is more informative than any individual data point. Markets often change character gradually.
2. Separate narrative from positioning. News headlines may still sound cautious, but if netflows indicate that heavy on-chain selling has already happened, the balance of risks can be different from what sentiment alone suggests.
3. Use multiple lenses. USDT flows on DEXs are one perspective. Combining them with data on centralised exchange reserves, derivatives positioning, long-term holder behaviour and macro indicators can provide a more rounded view.
4. Respect uncertainty. A reduction in selling pressure does not automatically imply that a new bull phase is guaranteed. It simply means the market has moved from a clearly stressed state into a more neutral one.
5. Align data with time horizon. Short-term swings in netflow may matter to day-to-day traders but are less relevant for participants who think in years. Understanding your own horizon is just as important as understanding the data.

The most responsible way to use on-chain information is as context. It can help frame discussions about risk, sentiment and liquidity without dictating specific actions. That approach keeps analysis aligned with brand-safety standards and emphasises informed decision-making over prediction.

8. Conclusion: A Market Catching Its Breath

The recent behaviour of USDT DEX netflows paints a picture of a crypto market that is no longer dominated by forced selling, yet not fully committed to a new advance. Aggressive distribution at the highs has given way to a quieter phase in which buying and selling are more balanced and the range of daily flows has narrowed. Bitcoin has responded with a short-term rebound from its lows, but a sustained uptrend would likely require a longer period of constructive netflows and continued evidence of healthy on-chain activity.

For now, the key message is one of stabilisation rather than euphoria. The data suggests that the shock of the initial correction is behind us; what comes next will depend on how new information—macroeconomic data, regulatory developments, technological progress—interacts with a market that is, at last, catching its breath.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and it should not be treated as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any digital asset. Digital asset markets are volatile and carry risks. Readers should conduct their own research and, where appropriate, consult qualified professionals before making decisions related to cryptocurrencies or other financial instruments.