Last year’s script (XRP/XLM/HBAR) was simple: break a year-long downtrend on the weekly chart, hold the retest, then expand. The bottom row of your composite now shows ZEC/ZEN/DASH tracing the same pattern. Here is the level map, risk framework, and a conditional ‘if/then’ plan to avoid chasing and still catch a four- to five-figure basis move

The 3×3 chart mosaic you shared (top row: XRP/XLM/HBAR in Q4/2024; bottom row: ZEC/ZEN/DASH now) tells a tidy story. Last year, the winners followed one playbook: slice a multi-quarter descending line → print a wide weekly impulse → spend a few candles compressing above the breakout → launch leg two. The bottom row is now echoing that script. Below we unpack each name and lay out a rules-based plan rather than a hunch.

Reference: What the 2024 Leaders Actually Did

XRP broke a yearlong diagonal with a long-bodied weekly candle, briefly pulled back toward the line, then stair-stepped higher in a tight range.
XLM repeated the sequence but needed several inside weeks right under the first heavy shelf before clearing it.
HBAR offered the cleanest retest: three candles hugging the flipped trendline, then a clean expansion.

Transfer the logic: a breakout without a weekly close back inside the old channel, plus a shallow check-back that holds, is the common denominator. That is exactly where ZEC (leader), ZEN (retest), and DASH (ceil test) sit today.

ZEC — The Spearhead (impulse first, retest likely next)

Where it is: Zcash vaulted out of its long drift and is parked around the $260–$280 band after a vertical weekly impulse. This is the phase where 2024’s leaders paused but did not forfeit more than half the breakout candle.

Primary support: $220–$240 (top of the prior box + body of the breakout candle). A weekly close above this region keeps the initiative with buyers.
Line in the sand: $170–$190. Lose it on a weekly close and you’ve re-entered the old range; momentum thesis cools.
Near resistance: $300–$320. Expect first touches to draw supply; acceptance above here telegraphs leg two.

Measured path: using the range height of the pre-break base (~$90–$120), a clean weekly close above $320 projects $400–$440 with extensions toward $480–$560 if breadth cooperates.

Execution (IF/THEN): If ZEC pulls into $220–$240 and prints a higher low on the weekly, then add/enter with an invalidation on a weekly close back below $220. If it flags above $300 for 2–4 candles, then a break-and-hold through $320 is the add-on for leg two.

ZEN — The Textbook Check-Back (prove the flip)

Where it is: Horizen ripped through its diagonal and has rotated back to the $12–$13 zone. That is the textbook place to demonstrate the old supply has flipped to demand.

Retest band: $11.8–$12.5. Buyers want bodies closing above this zone; wicks are fine, closes are what count.
Break trigger: $16.5–$17 weekly close opens $19–$22 and then $23–$25.
Invalidation: weekly close back under $10.8 (below the line and the retest structure).

Measured path: base height ~$6–$7. Clearing $17–$18 supports a run toward $23–$25; momentum extensions print $27–$31 if flows persist.

Execution (IF/THEN): If ZEN holds $12–$13 on two weekly closes and RSI/MFI don’t roll, then starter spot is justified with a protective weekly stop under $10.8. If price compresses just beneath $17–$18 and volume dries, then treat the break as a measured-move ignition, not a chase.

DASH — The Ceiling Test (build the shelf to go)

Where it is: Dash punched through the diagonal and tagged the $50–$55 supply stack before backing off to the low-$40s. This mirrors XLM’s first trip into heavy resistance last year: you don’t smash it on the first try—you build right below it.

Ceiling: $50–$55. A weekly close above $55 transitions the chart into localized price discovery.
Support band: $38–$41. That’s the new battleground; staying above it keeps the breakout honest.
Deep defense: $34–$35. Lose it on a weekly close and the setup needs to reset nearer $30–$32.

Measured path: prior box height ~$15. Hold above $41, then break $55 → objective $68–$72, with extensions toward $78–$88 if the flag resolves upward.

Execution (IF/THEN): If DASH prints 2–3 inside weeks squeezing between $41–$49 with falling realized vol, then the second attempt through $55 has higher odds. If it undercuts $38 and pops back above on the same week (spring), then that becomes the lower-risk spot add with a stop beneath the spring low.

Cross-Asset & Microstructure Considerations

Spot vs. perps: The healthiest advances in last year’s leaders were spot-led with neutral to slightly positive funding; crowding on perps preceded shakeouts. Keep leverage modest; let weekly bodies, not intraday wicks, drive decisions.
After a purge, respect the reset: Market-wide liquidations flushed a chunk of OI recently. That makes breakouts stickier if spot demand shows up, but it also increases headline sensitivity—size positions accordingly.
Privacy-coin policy beta (ZEC/DASH): Headlines can gap the tape; position sizing and weekly stops matter more than usual.

Side-by-Side Fractal Checklist (XRP/XLM/HBAR → ZEC/ZEN/DASH)

Broken diagonal? ✓ for all three (ZEC strongest follow-through).
Retest/acceptance above line? ZEN is doing it; ZEC likely to attempt post-$300 probe; DASH needs to base above $41.
Compression before thrust? Look for shrinking ranges and lower volume right under the next shelf ($300–$320 ZEC; $17–$18 ZEN; $50–$55 DASH).
Leg-two ignition? Weekly close through the shelf, then hold it on a 1–3 candle pullback.

Risk Framework (so you can survive being early)

Anchor on weekly closes. On names with history of long wicks, intraday stops are noise magnets.
Stagger entries. Split exposure: retest add + breakout add + post-retest add. Let the market prove each step.
Pre-plan scale-outs. ZEC: $300–$320 → $360–$380 → $400–$440 → $480–$560. ZEN: $19–$22 → $23–$25 → $27–$31. DASH: $55–$60 → $68–$72 → $78–$88.
Know the invalidations. ZEC < $220 (weekly) weakens, < $190 breaks the thesis; ZEN < $10.8; DASH < $34–$35.

Bottom Line

What worked for XRP/XLM/HBAR last year is lining up for ZEC/ZEN/DASH now: the downtrend is broken, the first impulse is in, and the market is deciding whether to accept higher. ZEC wears the leader jersey (expansion first, retest later), ZEN sits at the gold-standard check-back, and DASH is pressing a thick ceiling that typically yields after a short base. Trade the structure—not the headline—by letting weekly closes confirm the flip, adding on measured breaks, and cutting only when the thesis (not the noise) is invalidated.

Sources & Visuals

Composite weekly charts: open image. Levels and scenarios are derived from the price action visible in the attachment and standard range/ measured-move techniques.

ZEC • ZEN • DASH in Q4/2025 — The ‘Fractal’ After XRP/XLM/HBAR and How to Trade the Second Leg