ICP/USDT.P Long Signal – November 6, 2025 (20:06)

Internet Computer (ICP) is attempting to transition from a grinding base to an impulse-and-hold phase. The proposed long rests at 6.55 with a wide but defensible invalidation at 4.70. Targets tier at 7.28, 8.10, and 9.33, chosen to align with overhead supply shelves and measured move projections from the local range.

Market Context

ICP’s narrative oscillates between ambition (decentralized compute, canister-native apps) and execution risk (developer retention, end-user traction). Price tends to respond less to incremental technical progress and more to clear user stories—notably social primitives, on-chain AI inference demos, or integrations that reduce the cognitive tax of onboarding. In mixed macro tapes, traders often treat ICP as a beta overlay on L1 risk rather than a pure growth proxy.

Given that broad crypto flows have recently favored high-liquidity majors, the ICP plan assumes selective rotation. If BTC dominance retreats intraday, ICP rallies can extend; if dominance surges, expect truncated moves and prioritize earlier profit-taking at 7.28.

Technical Analysis

• Base construction: Multi-week higher-low sequence from sub-6 to mid-6s; sellers repeatedly fail to push new lows—constructive.
• Momentum: 4H MACD crossing zero from below with expanding histogram is a hallmark of early trend restoration.
• Levels: 7.20–7.35 hosts prior supply; acceptance above there exposes 8.10, with 8.80–9.40 the next resistance belt.
• Risk geometry: The 4.70 invalidation sits below the last structural low and 200-EMA (D) cushion, allowing for volatility while preserving signal integrity.

Key Levels

• Entry: 6.55
• Targets: 7.28 → 8.10 → 9.33
• Stoploss: 4.70

Risk Management

Risk 0.5%–1.0%. Because invalidation is distant, consider half-size initial with a conditional add on a 4H close above 7.30. After first target, move stop to entry or under the most recent 1H higher-low.

• Derivatives posture: If open interest balloons into 7.2–7.4 without spot leadership, derisk—this is where squeezes stall.
• Event control: Keep alerts for protocol news and exchange maintenance; ICP can gap through levels on headlines.
• Max pain planning: Define a daily drawdown cap (−2R) to prevent tilt.