ZEC defied the post-selloff blues, vaulting to multi-year highs while peers chopped. Flows and momentum still favor buyers—but a long-heavy derivatives skew and nearby liquidation bands could decide whether price holds $250s support or makes a run at $331 and $461

While much of the altcoin complex is still nursing losses from last week’s macro shock, Zcash (ZEC) staged an eye-catching rebound and pushed to a fresh multi-year high—a move that has traders asking whether this is a one-off squeeze or the start of a new leadership phase. Multiple outlets flagged the breakout as ZEC ripped from late-summer lows into the high $200s and briefly knocked on the $300 door, marking its strongest print in roughly four years.

Why ZEC decoupled as others wobbled

Recent desk notes highlight an unusual alignment: both retail and larger accounts continued to add during pullbacks, with momentum gauges flashing extreme readings. In particular, analyses this weekend pointed to a Money Flow Index (MFI) in the overheated zone and a still-positive Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), suggesting that buying pressure remained decisive even as the broader market de-risked. The takeaway isn’t that risk has vanished—overbought prints invite volatility—but that dip demand has been persistent enough to keep trend structure intact.

Price context: from capitulation scare to four-year high

After a brief downdraft during the cross-asset selloff, ZEC’s rally accelerated: coverage tracked a run from sub-$40 summer levels to the $280–$296 area in October, with intraday spikes toward $300 before cooling. That arc puts ZEC’s weekly performance among the best in large-cap privacy coins and marks a decisive break above prior supply zones that capped rallies through 2022–2024.

Structure on the chart: the case for higher if support holds

Technicians frame the current setup as an ascending-triangle continuation with a rising series of higher lows beneath horizontal resistance. Into the weekend, several trade notes mapped immediate support in the low–mid $250s, with an initial upside pivot near $331. A daily close through that shelf opens measured targets in the $460s based on prior impulse extensions and triangle math. None of this guarantees linear travel—but it sketches a roadmap if dip buyers keep control of the tape.

The catch: derivatives positioning is long-heavy

Where the story gets fragile is the futures book. Heatmaps and positioning dashboards show liquidation clusters building just below price, and recent breakdowns called out a long-dominant skew on venues tracking ZEC/USDT—classic fuel for forced selling if price wicks lower into those bands. In plain English: the spot bid looks healthy, but a sudden slide toward well-watched trigger levels could cascade through leveraged longs and produce whipsaw.

Three paths from here

1. Continuation (bull case): Spot demand absorbs shallow dips above the $250–$255 shelf; funding stays near flat; CMF trends higher as larger accounts re-engage. In this lane, price grinds toward $331, and a decisive daily close through that level unlocks the $400–$461 zone over the following legs.

2. Base-building (neutral): Rejection near $300 leads to a multi-session range between roughly $240–$300. Liquidation clusters thin out as open interest rebuilds slowly. This outcome preserves the higher-low structure while sentiment cools from overbought.

3. Leverage-led air pocket (bear risk): A fast tag of high-$170s to low-$220s liquidation zones forces long unwinds and prints a deeper retrace before buyers step back in. This scenario becomes more likely if funding jumps while spot volumes stall, or if macro headlines reignite broad risk-off.

What would validate the bullish thesis

Spot leadership over perps: ETF creations, exchange net inflows, and fiat on-ramp volumes outpacing perp growth—evidence that fresh capital, not recycled leverage, is doing the lifting.
Healthy internals: MFI easing from extremes without price damage (classic “cooling at the highs”), and CMF turning up toward prior peaks—signals that buying remains broad-based rather than purely momentum-driven.
Clean break and hold: Multiple closes above $331 with expanding volume and shallow pullbacks—a hallmark of sustainable trend continuation.

What could break the setup

Macro spillover: Renewed tariff or export-control headlines hit semis and high-beta risk, clipping crypto beta and refilling liquidation bands under ZEC. (This dynamic just drove the sector-wide flush.)
Re-crowding in futures: If open interest and funding surge back while spot flows lag, the market re-enters a squeeze-prone posture where small dips trigger outsized moves.
Privacy-coin idiosyncrasies: Exchange policy shifts or listing frictions periodically add non-technical risk to privacy assets; traders should size with that tail risk in mind.

The investment narrative in one line

ZEC’s surge isn’t just a squeeze story—it’s the combination of steady dip-buying, improved breadth, and a clean break above long-standing resistance. The momentum is real, but so is the leverage sitting beneath price. Respect the supports, watch the $331 gate, and let the market prove it can advance on spot strength rather than hot funding.