Six spot XRP ETF proposals from major issuers are in the queue and a leading issuer executive now pegs first-month demand at up to $10B. But with the SEC pared back during the U.S. shutdown, timelines are slipping and price is stuck near $3

Wall Street finally has a blueprint for multi-coin ETFs, and XRP is next in line — at least on paper. Multiple spot XRP ETF filings from heavyweight issuers are awaiting action at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Yet with Washington in a funding standoff, the SEC is running on a skeleton crew, and non-urgent reviews are sliding to the right. For XRP, that means a rare setup: pent-up demand meets an administrative roadblock.

Where the Logjam Is: A Thinned-Out SEC

The agency’s own operational notice confirms it is operating under its shutdown plan with only essential functions staffed — a posture that slows routine registration and listing work. Market lawyers have warned that reviews of new securities filings, including crypto ETFs, can be delayed under this regime. In short: even if the market is ready, the queue isn’t moving at full speed.

Who Has Filed — and Why It Matters

At least six spot XRP ETF proposals are active, including from Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and CoinShares. Industry trackers have laid out the late-October decision window those issuers were targeting before the shutdown noise escalated. Meanwhile, reporting in August showed issuers updating paperwork to keep applications current, signaling that the race is real — not just rumor.

For avoidance of doubt that Canary is a genuine filer: an SEC registration statement is on file for its XRP vehicle, naming Steven (Steve) McClurg and confirming the firm’s role as sponsor. That document gives the proposal bona fides beyond press statements.

The $10 Billion Claim: Where It Comes From

Steve McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital (formerly Valkyrie co-founder/CIO), has upped his estimate for first-month XRP ETF inflows from $5B to as much as $10B, citing institutional appetite and lessons from prior ETF launches. In interviews and broadcasts this month, he argued that day-one demand could run into the low billions if market conditions cooperate. These are projections — not guarantees — but they’re coming from an issuer that has repeatedly filed crypto ETFs in 2025.

Context helps. When U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs debuted in January 2024, first-day trading volume topped $4.6B across the group. Net inflows were much smaller than volume but still meaningful in the opening stretch. If even a fraction of that launch energy repeats for XRP, a rapid AUM build is feasible — once the stoplight turns green.

Price Check: $3 Handle, $3.10 Lid

With the ETF narrative in limbo, XRP has been circling the $3 level, repeatedly bumping against $3.07–$3.10 resistance and fading when broader risk appetite cools. Short-term technicians are watching that band and a sub-$2.80 support zone as the levels likely to define the next directional break.

How a Shutdown Bottlenecks the ETF Assembly Line

During a funding lapse, the SEC prioritizes market-integrity emergencies, not routine product approvals. That means 19b-4 listing rule changes and S-1 prospectus reviews — the two tracks spot crypto ETFs typically require — may sit until staffing normalizes. News coverage across capital markets underscores the same pattern: IPOs, rulemaking, and novel product reviews drift when the agency is thinly staffed.

What Happens When the Light Turns Green

If the shutdown lifts and the Commission reverts to standard processing, there’s a credible path for one or more XRP ETFs to get decisions in a tight cluster. The immediate market impact will depend on three variables:

Wrapper design and fees: Low-fee funds with strong market makers typically win flows early; a pricey wrapper can drag, as seen in other crypto ETF launches.
Distribution muscle: Issuers with established advisor networks (or retail access via top brokerages) tend to scale faster.
Liquidity at listing: Deep seed capital and tight spreads help the first week look “institutional,” which begets more institutional interest.

Could $10B Really Arrive That Fast?

History says volume can be massive out of the gate — the Bitcoin case proved that — but net inflows take longer to compound. If institutional allocators slot XRP alongside existing BTC and ETH exposures, the cumulative inflow math could still reach McClurg’s upper-bound scenario over weeks rather than hours. His firm’s steady cadence of filings across coins in 2025 also suggests issuers are preparing operationally for a ramp when approvals come.

Reality Check: What Could Still Go Wrong

Regulatory sequencing: Even after the shutdown, the SEC could stage decisions, approve fewer issuers, or request additional disclosures that push timelines.
Wrapper specifics: Investors must read whether equity-like rights (if any) are passed through, how NAV is struck, and who the custodians are — details that have tripped up tokenized and traditional wrappers alike.
Macro headwinds: A stronger U.S. dollar or risk-off in equities can cap flows into higher-beta crypto exposures, delaying the “reflexive” AUM build ETF bulls expect. Recent market swings show how quickly sentiment can rotate.

Market Scenarios for the Next 1–3 Months

1) Shut, then surge

Funding deal restores SEC capacity; decisions land in quick succession. A low-fee leader emerges and captures a disproportionate share of day-one assets. Price clears $3.10 with volume confirmation and squeezes toward prior breakdown zones as ETF demand is onboarded.

2) Rolling delays

Shutdown drags; deadlines slip. XRP chops between ~$2.80 and $3.10 as traders fade every rumor. Open interest and basis compress; flows await calendar clarity.

3) Partial approvals

One or two funds clear while others get extensions. Flows concentrate, spreads stay tight in the winners, and laggards remain in registration. Price reaction is positive but measured as allocators await a broader shelf.

Bottom Line

The ingredients for a blockbuster XRP ETF launch are on the table: multiple live filings from blue-chip issuers, a market that has already embraced spot crypto ETFs, and an issuer CEO now guiding to as much as $10B in first-month demand. But the catalyst is stuck in traffic. Until the SEC is fully back online, the biggest single unlock for XRP adoption sits in a holding pattern — and so does price, anchored near $3 while the market waits for a green light.

Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. ETF approvals, timelines, and flows remain uncertain and subject to regulatory outcomes.