A tariff-driven market shock dragged most altcoins into deep red. Pi fell ~23% but defended the $0.15 area and rebounded toward $0.21. With CMF elevated and a nascent RSI bullish divergence, the next battle is a weekly reclaim of $0.25. Here’s the map, the risks, and the two catalysts that matter

A macro jolt from fresh U.S.–China tariff rhetoric sparked a cross-asset risk-off and sent crypto into forced deleveraging. In the washout, Pi Network (PI) surrendered nearly 23%, but the tape didn’t fracture: price held the high-importance support band near $0.15, then recovered toward $0.21. That sequence—defend, stabilize, rebound—keeps a constructive path alive, provided buyers convert overhead supply on the next pass.

First principles and a necessary caveat

Because Pi’s exchange exposure can involve IOU or pre-mainnet instruments depending on venue, liquidity pockets and premium/discount effects may diverge from spot pairs on major L1s. Treat levels as zones rather than single ticks, and prioritize higher-timeframe closes over intraday wicks when judging trend validity.

What the indicators are actually saying

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): Still hovering in positive territory, suggesting net accumulation pressure despite volatility. That lines up with the observed absorption at $0.15 and the rapid push back to $0.21.
RSI divergence: Price made a lower low into the capitulation wick (down to the new local trough near $0.1721), while RSI posted a higher low—classic bullish divergence that often precedes mean reversion or a trend turn.

The level map: where the next decision gets made

Immediate support: $0.184–$0.190. Lose this band on a daily/weekly close and the rebound thesis weakens; you invite a re-test of $0.172–$0.175 (the new cycle low). Below that, $0.150 is the last stand of the current structure.
Pivot resistance: $0.245–$0.255 with a psychological midline at $0.25. Acceptance above this shelf turns supply into support and unlocks the next target zone.
Upside bands: First objective $0.258–$0.264 (sitting just above the pivot), then $0.285–$0.305. A weekly close through the latter signals control has shifted back to buyers.

Structure check: is this just a bounce, or the start of a new swing?

The answer rests on acceptance vs. rejection at the $0.25 pivot. After a liquidation shock, “healthy” recoveries are spot-led, show declining downside volume on pullbacks, and compress beneath resistance before expanding. If Pi can go sideways-up for a few sessions below $0.25 with shrinking ranges and then punch through, the probability of an A→B measured move into the high-$0.20s/low-$0.30s rises materially.

Flow tells to watch on-chain and at the edge

Depth at the bid: Refill behavior around $0.19–$0.20 after intraday sweeps. Fast refills = patient buyers underneath.
Perps vs. spot: Funding should stay neutral to mildly positive; aggressive long funding without spot follow-through often precedes another shake.
Distribution diagnostics: If rallies into $0.25 repeatedly print long upper wicks with rising volume, sellers still own the rail; if volume dries while price holds, sellers are exhausted.

Why there’s a fundamental bid at all

Beyond the tape, the thesis supporting Pi’s steadier hand is straightforward: a very large user base and steady progress on KYC throughput keep optionality alive for future network effects. In markets, optionality is value. As long as the community’s execution cadence doesn’t stall, dips invite incremental positioning from holders treating current prints as a long-dated option on eventual mainnet utility.

The two binary catalysts

Hackathon outcomes: If top projects demonstrate real user flows or compelling MVPs tied to Pi’s rails, the market gains a narrative beyond reflexive bounces. Shipments beat slogans.
Mainnet roadmap clarity: Concrete, time-bound milestones for an open mainnet are the single strongest multiple-expansion lever. Even partial openness (phased access, allow-listed bridges) can improve liquidity quality and reduce pricing dislocations across venues.

Scenarios (next 1–3 weeks)

Constructive base → breakout: Pi holds $0.184–$0.190, compresses under $0.25, then closes above it with follow-through to $0.258–$0.264 and a probe of $0.285–$0.305. This is the signal that the bounce is evolving into a tradable swing.
Range chop with lower highs: Multiple rejections at $0.25, but buyers defend $0.19. Expect whipsaws and a time correction; catalysts become decisive.
Failure → liquidity sweep: A daily/weekly close below $0.184 exposes $0.172. A stop-run beneath the low followed by an immediate reclaim (a “spring”) can still set a stronger base—watch reaction, not just the breach.

Risk framing so you can stay solvent

Use HTF closes for invalidation. On instruments with uneven liquidity, wick hunts are frequent. Weekly/daily bodies matter more.
Scale, don’t all-in. One tranche near $0.19–$0.20 (if defended), one on a $0.25 reclaim, and a final add only after acceptance above $0.264.
Respect the downside skew. New local lows happen fast in post-liquidation regimes; pre-define pain points and stick to them.

Bottom line

Pi absorbed a macro shock, held its key shelf, and is now testing the airspace beneath $0.25. The tape hints at seller fatigue (positive CMF, RSI divergence), but the burden of proof sits with buyers to reclaim and hold above the pivot. Do that, and a glide toward $0.258–$0.264 and even $0.285–$0.305 is on the table. Fail the $0.184 guardrail, and the market likely re-tests $0.172 before any durable bottoming effort. From here, price will take its cue from execution: hackathon deliveries and a clearer mainnet path are the levers that turn a technical rebound into a trend.