BNB tapped a fresh all-time high above $1,340 before easing. A textbook flag, bearish RSI divergence, and frothy short-term NUPL argue for a tidy reset toward $1,190–$1,130 before the next leg to $1,550 and beyond—unless $1,130 gives way

Among large-cap tokens, BNB has been the quiet overachiever. The coin punched through the $1,340 area to set a new all-time high only hours ago, notching roughly +3.3% in the last 24 hours and more than +27% week over week at the time of writing. Since tagging the peak, price has retraced by about 3.4%—a dip that looks less like a reversal and more like a textbook cool-off after a vertical push. In fact, both the chart structure and on-chain context suggest BNB may be building the runway for its next attempt higher.

A Familiar Blueprint: Flag-and-Pole, Revisited

On the 12-hour chart, BNB appears to be tracing a bull flag that rhymes with a prior breakout from earlier in the cycle. In the earlier sequence, price ripped from roughly $840 (Point A) to around $1,080 (Point B), then digested in a slanted consolidation of ~13.9% down to ~$930 before launching to $1,270 and beyond. Today’s structure looks like a near-echo: a new pole from A1 to B1 topping near $1,340, followed by the first pulls into a tightening channel—the flag. In bull markets, these patterns are the market’s way of catching breath without handing control to sellers.

Momentum Check: RSI Throws a Yellow Flag

Even strong trends need relief. As BNB printed higher highs, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 12-hour frame failed to confirm, leaving a bearish divergence (higher price, lower momentum high). Divergences are not a death knell on their own, but they do say the rally is doing more with less fuel. On this timeframe, that often resolves through a controlled pullback or a few sessions of sideways drift—both of which can reset momentum for a cleaner push.

On-Chain Heat: Short-Term NUPL at a Yearly Peak

Behavioral data is flashing hot, too. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for short-term holders jumped from about 0.128 on September 25, 2023 to roughly 0.345 by October 7, 2023—a surge of roughly 170% and the highest reading this year. Elevated NUPL means a larger share of recent buyers are sitting on paper gains, which often coincides with local tops as some of that profit gets harvested. A similar NUPL spike around July 27, 2025 preceded a pullback near 13%, a handy analog for the kind of digestion that can shape the flag’s lower boundary now.

Where a Healthy Reset Could Land

If the fractal continues to play out, the market may gravitate toward a $1,190–$1,130 reload zone—roughly mirroring the depth of the prior consolidation. That pocket aligns with key Fibonacci retracements of the most recent impulse and captures the heart of the flag structure. A patient dip into this band would bleed off momentum froth, reduce overbought conditions, and—crucially—invite fresh demand at prices that feel fair to sidelined buyers.

Upside Markers: Extensions at $1,550 and $1,820

For targets, the same Fibonacci mapping that framed the last upswing projects $1,550 near the 1.618 extension and $1,820 around the 2.618 extension. Those waypoints aren’t guarantees; they’re balance points where prior flows and extension math often intersect. If the flag resolves upward, a measured move into the $1,550 region is a reasonable first objective, with the $1,820 zone representing the stretch case should momentum re-accelerate.

Invalidation: The Line the Bulls Must Defend

Every roadmap needs a guardrail. A 12-hour close beneath $1,130 would undercut the flag’s integrity and weaken the continuation thesis, opening risk to a deeper hunt for liquidity. That does not instantly flip the macro trend, but it argues for patience: let the market rebuild structure rather than assume a quick V-shape.

Why a Pullback Can Help the Next Leg

Refuels momentum: Cooling RSI from overbought allows a new sequence of higher highs to form with confirmation.
Resets positioning: Profit-taking by fast money hands supply to stickier holders who are less likely to sell the next rip.
Improves risk-reward: Entries near the flag’s lower rail offer tighter invalidation relative to upside extensions.

Microstructure Clues to Watch During the Dip

Wick behavior: Sharp stabs into $1,190–$1,130 that are immediately bid back suggest absorption by patient buyers.
Volume profile: Rising participation on green candles and fading volume on red candles is the classic continuation signature.
Funding & OI: Elevated funding with soft spot inflows means leverage is doing the heavy lifting—fragile. Balanced or subdued funding with steady spot demand is healthier.

Scenario Planner: Next 1–3 Weeks

Base Case: Flag Completes, Breakout Attempts

Price digests into $1,190–$1,130, RSI resets, and short-term NUPL cools as late longs de-risk. A clean flag breakout targets $1,550 first, with follow-through contingent on fresh spot demand.

Bull Extension: Momentum Refuses to Wait

BNB barely tests the mid-flag, squeezes through the upper trendline on rising volume, and accelerates toward $1,550 sooner than expected. Look for shallow intraday pullbacks and quick reclaim of breakout levels as validation.

Caution Path: Flag Fails

A decisive 12h close below $1,130 shifts control to sellers for a time. Bulls wait for a new base—perhaps around prior breakout shelves—before attempting another leg.

Risk Management: Practical Anchors

Define invalidation before entry: If you’re trading the flag, the structure—not gut feel—should set the stop.
Scale, don’t chase: Leg into the reload zone instead of buying every red candle. Let price show absorption.
Respect timeframe: A clean 12-hour pattern can be noisy intraday. Align position size with the timeframe you’re actually trading.

Bottom Line

BNB’s sprint to a new record near $1,340 invited exactly the kind of tidy reset that healthy trends crave. A maturing bull flag, a modest RSI divergence, and elevated short-term NUPL all point to a controlled pullback—ideally into $1,190–$1,130—before the next attempt higher. Hold that band and the path of least resistance reopens toward $1,550, with a stretch to $1,820 if momentum refires. Lose $1,130 on a 12-hour close, and the continuation case takes a back seat while the market hunts for a deeper floor. For now, the weight of evidence frames this dip as preparation, not capitulation.

Disclosure: This market commentary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk according to your objectives.