First, the Claim—and a Quick Fact Check

A widely shared note attributes a bold call to a macro strategist named Bell Madison: Bitcoin has already set its cycle floor and could rally 50% to roughly $150,000 by late February, with a further leg possible into year-end. We tried to corroborate the identity and track record of this commentator and did not find a verifiable professional profile, prior published research, or regulated analyst coverage under that name. In other words, treat the persona as pseudonymous or unverified rather than a recognized sell-side or buy-side source. That doesn’t make the price target impossible; it just means the messenger should not carry your conviction for you.

What we can verify is the broader backdrop: the United States approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, creating a persistent pipeline from traditional brokerage accounts into BTC exposure. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is one of the largest of those vehicles, and its existence is not in doubt. These vehicles structurally matter for demand because they translate ordinary flows into authorized participant creations and, ultimately, spot buying. (U.S. spot approvals in January 2024 are well documented; IBIT is one of the approved funds. ([ScienceDirect][1]))

What “A Bottom” Actually Requires

Prices bottom when marginal forced sellers exhaust and fresh spot demand appears at levels the market previously rejected. That sounds simple, but the plumbing is layered:

• Macro valve: Real yields and the broad dollar. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding duration-less assets like BTC; a softer dollar and falling real yields usually loosen the valve.
• TradFi bridge: ETF creations vs. redemptions. Sustained net creations = mechanical spot demand; prolonged net redemptions = a weight that spot markets must absorb.
• On-chain circulation: Exchange balances, stablecoin float, and transfer volume. A rising stablecoin supply and falling exchange BTC reserves typically support uptrends, while shrinking float can starve rallies of fuel.
• Derivatives posture: Funding, basis, and gamma. Extended positive funding and crowded calls tend to cap trend extensions; negative funding and flat skew create better launch conditions.

Bottoms that lead to trend transitions normally print when at least three of these four layers improve together.

Testing the “150K by February” Pathway

From ~100K, 150K requires ~50% appreciation in roughly 16 weeks. Annualized, that’s aggressive but not unprecedented for BTC: volatility clusters make such runs viable if positioning is clean and liquidity turns supportive. We break the pathway into checkpoints:

Checkpoint 1 — Macro Headroom

Real rates drift lower or stall near current levels. BTC is acutely sensitive to changes in real yields (nominal minus inflation expectations). A 25–50 bps decline in 10-year real yields over a quarter historically correlates with multiple expansion across risk assets. For BTC, it doesn’t guarantee gains, but it removes a macro headwind and often softens the dollar. In plain language: a slightly easier policy path or simply the absence of fresh tightening pressure is oxygen.

Fiscal impulse and liquidity quirks. U.S. Treasury issuance cadence, TGA drawdowns, and bill-vs-coupon mix alter system reserves. You don’t need a PhD in plumbing: just know that episodes when reserves stop shrinking (or expand) tend to coincide with better risk appetite. A government re-opening, if it reduces policy uncertainty and allows delayed data prints to resume, can help stabilize risk taking—but the effect must flow through to actual reserve dynamics, not just headlines.

Checkpoint 2 — ETF Flow Turn

Spot ETFs are the cleanest read-through for TradFi demand. A flirtation with net outflows does not end a cycle, but a persistent outflow streak can. Bulls need creations to dominate again—ideally several consecutive sessions of net inflows that flip the narrative and re-engage model-driven allocators. The signal here is not the raw dollar amount on a single day; it’s the breadth and persistence across the largest funds. (Background on the 2024 approvals and the IBIT product: ([ScienceDirect][1]))

Checkpoint 3 — Derivatives Reset

If the selloff already flushed late longs, you would expect funding rates near flat, perp basis subdued, and options skew no longer paying a heavy premium for upside. In that state, spot buying has a clearer path because it does not immediately force dealers to sell rallies (i.e., less negative gamma pressure). If, however, funding ramps quickly as price lifts, rallies can stall against the need to onboard new longs at ever-higher prints—an unstable footing.

Checkpoint 4 — On-Chain Follow-Through

The on-chain tell is simple: stablecoin float expanding while exchange BTC balances keep grinding lower. The former hints at dry powder; the latter implies less readily available supply. Many prior impulses have died because one or the other was missing—cash was there but supply flooded in, or supply was tight but the cash cannon never reloaded.

Why the “50% in 16 Weeks” Target Is Not Crazy—But Not Inevitable

Bitcoin’s realized volatility can compress to 25–35% and then explode back toward 70–100% annualized in short bursts. At 80% annualized, a one-month one standard deviation move is roughly 23%. Two such months back-to-back, coupled with 5–8% pullbacks controlled by clean positioning, easily prints a 50% swing. The key is the path: not a straight line, but a staircase where pullbacks are bought rather than accelerated.

In this regime, microstructure matters:

• Liquidity pockets: As price climbs back into previously congested zones, offer depth often dries up. A small number of motivated buyers (ETF creations, balance-sheet accumulators, treasuries) can move price disproportionately.
• Dealer hedging: If call overwriters dominate, dealers carry short gamma high above spot; sharp upside then forces dealers to buy back BTC as it rises, reinforcing the move.
• Basis trades: If futures premiums rebuild, basis desks soak up long demand by shorting futures and buying spot—still net supportive to spot, but they cap basis and smooth the curve.

Addressing the Supporting Arguments in the Viral Note

The original call reportedly cites, among other things, a “healthy pullback to a two-year trend channel,” ETF redistribution from early hands to larger holders, and geopolitical noise (including Venezuela) as background static. Here’s how we view those pillars:

1. Technical retests of long-running channels can be constructive if they coincide with crowd capitulation and not with renewed distribution from long-tenured holders. The easiest cross-check is spent output profit ratio (SOPR) and realized losses: a spike followed by stabilization often marks capitulation. But one-day spikes without follow-through can be head fakes.
2. ETF “redistribution” is a euphemism. If it means weak hands sold ETF shares and long-horizon institutions bought them, that’s supportive. If it means net redemptions that market makers had to unwind in spot, that’s not redistribution—that’s supply.
3. Geopolitical noise very rarely creates a sustained trend for BTC unless it changes the direction of policy (e.g., sanctions that alter USD liquidity or large shifts in energy prices that affect mining economics). Tying a precise price path to a regional flashpoint is story-telling unless the channel back to liquidity is explicit.

Four Scenarios From Here

1) Upside Staircase (Probability 30–35%)

Real yields ease 25–40 bps into year-end; the dollar tops out; spot ETF creations print a string of positive days; perp funding remains contained; stablecoin supply rises marginally. Price recovers the recent breakdown zone, chews through overhead supply, and prints a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Over 12–16 weeks, this path carries to the 135K–155K range with two pullbacks of 8–12%. This is the pathway the 150K call needs.

2) High-Beta Chop (Probability 35–40%)

Macro is neither friend nor foe: real yields stall; the dollar softens only modestly. ETF flows alternate between small inflows and small outflows; derivatives heat up quickly on each bounce. Price oscillates 95K–120K, inflicting pain on both momentum chasers and perma-bears. This regime lasts until one of the macro valves—policy or dollar—meaningfully loosens.

3) Liquidity Air-Pocket (Probability 15–20%)

Unexpected fiscal/tax headlines or a hawkish repricing of policy push real yields higher. ETF outflows extend; stablecoin float stagnates; miners sell more inventory than modeled due to margin pressures. BTC revisits the mid-80Ks before buyers reappear. The cycle isn’t over, but time expands and the opportunity cost rises.

4) Face-Ripper (Probability 10–15%)

A left-tail macro positive (faster inflation cool-down plus friendlier policy communication) arrives alongside a strong ETF inflow streak. Options dealers get caught short gamma above a key strike cluster; price gaps quickly through illiquid air. BTC overshoots to 160K+ and then mean-reverts. This is rare but not impossible; preparation beats prediction.

How to Separate Signal From Noise Over the Next 4–8 Weeks

• Watch breadth within ETFs. One mega-fund printing inflows while peers leak is weak confirmation. A true turn features several large issuers in creation mode for multiple sessions. (Context on the ETF complex’s origin: ([ScienceDirect][1]))
• Monitor funding and basis, not headlines. If perp funding surges >20–30 bps annualized within days of a bounce, the rally is feeding on leverage too early. Healthy rallies let spot lead; futures follow.
• Check stablecoin supply weekly, not daily. One day proves nothing. A multi-week expansion across USDT, USDC, and other majors indicates fresh firepower.
• Track realized profits. If every push higher is met by heavy profit-taking (elevated aSOPR for short-tenure coins), expect choppy progress until supply depletes.

On the Venezuela and “Macro Distraction” Angle

Markets are forward-looking discounting machines. Regional tensions can move energy and freight, which can move inflation expectations, which can move rates. That’s the chain. For BTC, the more direct macro channels remain U.S. policy expectations, dollar trend, and global liquidity. If the viral note uses Venezuela as a narrative flourish without tying it to these channels, treat it as color, not cause.

What Would Prove the Bottom Call Right?

1. Three data points over two weeks: (a) consecutive net ETF inflow days among the top 3–5 funds; (b) stable, near-flat perp funding despite rising price; (c) stablecoin aggregate market cap inflecting higher.
2. Price structure: reclaim and hold the breakdown shelf (the prior 103–107K region for many spot venues) and then replace it with a series of higher lows on 4H/1D timeframes.
3. On-chain rotation: young-coin profit taking abates while long-tenured supply stays idle. That mix means rallies are not immediately sold into by early dip buyers.

What Would Falsify It?

• ETF outflows persist through month-end while price can’t hold above reclaimed levels, implying that other spot buyers cannot absorb structural supply.
• Funding and skew explode higher on shallow bounces, signaling that derivatives, not spot, are driving the move.
• Stablecoin float stagnates or declines, indicating that dollar liquidity isn’t refilling crypto native pipes.

Positioning, Risk, and Sizing—The Boring Stuff That Saves You

Whether you buy the 150K target or not, the allocation questions rhyme:

• Stagger entries. Rather than a single “bottom tick,” ladder in tranches tied to objective triggers (ETF breadth flips, funding cools after a pop, reclaim of prior shelf).
• Define invalidation. A 7–10% stop below your most recent add is often better than a single hard stop below the absolute low; it acknowledges path-dependence.
• Hedge the tail. In chop regimes, out-of-the-money put spreads financed with covered call overwrites can reduce bleed while leaving upside. Sophisticated participants may prefer calendar call spreads into catalysts.
• Respect liquidity times. Daily U.S. open and late U.S. close remain volatility windows because ETF flows, dealer hedging, and macro prints collide there.

About That “Unverified Strategist” Problem

We were unable to independently verify a finance professional or macro strategist with the name Bell Madison who has a documented history of published research or a regulated analyst platform. Importantly, the notion that BTC could reach 150K within a quarter is not, in itself, extraordinary—multiple analysts over 2024–2025 have expressed targets in that vicinity or higher. For example, a separate 2024 call from The Benchmark Company predicted 150K by the end of 2025, underscoring that such numbers are within the mainstream of bullish projections even if timelines vary. (Benchmark’s 150K view: ([crypto.news][2]))

Our Bottom Line

Bitcoin may indeed have carved a significant low. But in professional risk management, bottoms are not declared; they’re validated. We will call this a probationary bottom: structurally credible if—and only if—ETF demand reasserts itself, real yields stop climbing, derivatives stay honest, and stablecoin float expands. Under that alignment, 150K by late February sits on the table as an upside case, not a base case. Without it, expect a high-beta range that damages impatient longs and shorts alike.

Trust the plumbing. Ignore the posters.